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mikecolince25
Apr 07, 2022
In Africa Project
Prediction bias is the assumption that others have the same beliefs, attitudes, and thought patterns as you. It is also possible to assume that your future self has the same needs as your present self. In both cases, it predicts your thoughts to a point where it may not be accurate. For example, if you like chocolate, you might be inclined to assume that other people also like chocolate, even though it turns out that 10% of people don't eat chocolate at all. Or, when you go to the supermarket hungry, you think that your future self will need as much food as possible, you end up over-buying, a lot of food, and then a few weeks later, there is only a pile of food left. Expired food. Prediction Bias Has Consequences These examples may be very mild and do not see serious consequences, but forecast Fax List deviations may at some point be more problematic and have more serious consequences. For example, a doctor's office may assume that everyone has internet access and decide to provide medical test results or appointment scheduling in an online portal. But for people in areas without stable or reliable internet access, it means they won't have access to health care. What if the building manager assumed everyone knew where the fire exits were - because they did - and didn't put up exit signs? Or what if city planners thought everyone would know which lanes to turn only without bothering to draw arrows on the ground? We don’t know whether our biases are benign or problematic, which is why predictive bias must be challenged proactively. How does prediction bias work in marketing? On the one hand, you may miss important data.
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